Long-Term Changes in Recreational Catch Inequality in a Trout Stream
David A. Seekella, Chase J. Brosseaub, Timothy J. Clinec, Raymond J. Winchcombed & Lee J. Zinnce
We've covered the topic of catch inequality before, the theory or statement you hear all the time about 10% of the anglers catching 90% of the fish. You can find that original piece in our articles section with the title, MythBusting: 10% of Anglers Catch 90% of Fish. It talks about Gini coefficients, Lorenz curves, and other fancy terms researchers use to describe and model this axiom. This new paper looks at catches from a single body of water over 20 years during a significant period of decline in catch per unit effort (CPUE). In other words, the fishery kept getting tougher as less fish were caught in any given year for the same or increased amount of fishing effort. The hypothesis on the table was whether between-angler inequality increases as catch per unit effort declines. That is, do we see an even bigger differences between catches of very skilled anglers and less skilled anglers as a fishery gets worse.
Without getting into too much scientific gore, researchers found that "catch per unit effort still plays a critical role in determining the magnitude of catch inequality." That is, on lakes where the average number of fish caught by an anglers per hour of effort is high, catch inequality is low. On the other hand, when fish captured are few and far between, greater inequality exists among anglers, or a small percentage accounts for a majority of the fish caught.
The new and interesting result coming out of this study was that trip-to-trip inequality increases with declining catch per unit effort, but between-angler inequality changes very little. Between angler inequality does go up, but not significantly. It's trip-to-trip inequality that accounts for the significant difference. I'll try and put that into simpler terms.
In any given year on a body of water, you have a range of anglers representing all levels of skill and ability; some really good, some not so good. From year to year, individual anglers fishing a body of water may change, but overall you pretty much keep that same general percentage level of both skilled and unskilled anglers in the pool. There's always some good anglers and there's always some not so good, 5 years, 10 years, even 20 years later. As such, inequality between anglers when assessed over the entire angling population over time remains a relative constant. It would be similar to saying that if you looked at the average age of anglers 5 years ago, versus say 5 years from now, it probabaly wouldn't be a whole lot different. There will always be a mix of both young and old anglers, and that age difference between them doesn't change much over the course of time.
What did change significantly though was trip-to-trip variability. So as the fishery went downhill, catching that fishery on a "good day" became much more important than the relative skill level of anglers on that body of water. Catching it on a "good day" equated to environmental randomness. As the researchers stated, this "explains why, on any given trip, a weak angler can be more successful than a skilled angler." It's the 'sucker shot' played out. Example: you may be an above average fisherman, but the last time you hit "the dead sea", you had blue sky cold front conditions and a 15 mph north wind - you caught some fish, but overall fishing sucked. Your buddy, who isn't near the fisherman you are, hit "the dead sea" on a good cloudy, drizzly day with light winds as a slow moving front was approaching - he wacked them. It really had little to do with his ability, but rather more to do with his timing.
And so this was the end result of this particular piece of research. As a fishery gets tougher and tougher over the years (CPUE declines), catching that body of water "on a good day" becomes the more significant reason for angler inequality among catches. The trick then lies in getting very good at predicting when the "good days" will be (the 'sucker shot'), or simply going every chance you get so when the good days occur, you'll already be there.
**David A. Seekell, Chase J. Brosseau, Timothy J. Cline, Raymond J. Winchcombe & Lee J. Zinn (2011): Long-Term Changes in Recreational Catch Inequality in a Trout Stream, North American Journal of Fisheries Management, 31:6, 1100-1105
More Weekend Wrapup "Stuff"
I'm not a tackle minimalist, but I did a pretty darn good job of checking out 2 stores and 1 fishing show this weekend and walking out of all 3 with less than $60 in combined purchases. Here are a few other things I picked up in the last week that I'll be reporting on in the future, as well as related site news.
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