We know where Lake Waveland currently stands now as to various metrics. The interesting part that I'm trying to figure out is whether the lake will start trending toward a cycle like West Boggs. In order to figure that out, we need to see some of the same metrics for Boggs. The bad news is that most of the same data pool for Boggs has been removed from the tourney site for a while. The good news, I have all the 2011 data plus a little extra to compare to.
The first big difference you'll notice at West Boggs vs. Waveland is that the average and median bags weights in tourneys at Boggs is really low. So while guys at Waveland are averaging about 12# per tourney, folks at Boggs are just reaching 4#. The median bag at Boggs is actually less than 1 pound. That is because on average, half the field blanks at Boggs in any given tourney. So Boggs is basically a low numbers lake. You'll see what this means in the next graph.
Generally speaking, low numbers of fish means more food to go around for what's left. As such, that usually translates into bigger fish. This graph demonstrates that nicely. The average West Boggs bass brought to the scales is nearly 4 pounds. Compare that to the current 2.5# fish at Waveland - big difference. The same trend applies in the big bass category. The trend at Boggs is still on the upswing, and now is consistently between 8-9 pounds.
Not much difference in the average number of boats in a tourney at either lake, with Boggs running around 27 boats and Waveland at 23. Again, Waveland probably would have been a bit higher if the 25 boat tourney limit had not been put in place by the park.
Another great graph showing the difference between a big numbers lake and a big fish lake (yes, sometimes you can have both). While 80% of all the boats at Waveland weigh a 5 fish limit at each event, less than 10% of all anglers ever have a limit at Boggs.
Here's another interesting stat for you. Over the course of this year, there were 20 bass over 5 pounds weighed at Boggs. That works out to about 16% of the total 127 bass weighed. Eleven of those were over 6#, 5 were over 7# and 4 were over 8. At Waveland, there were only 4 bass weighed over 5 pounds (1%) in this circuit, and only 1 of those was over 6. That out of a total of 494 weighed fish by a couple less boats per tourney on average. Again, a great numbers lake versus a great size lake.
Finally, while there were several sacks in the 17-18# range weighed at Waveland (18.01 best, twice), there were 5 sacks over 20 pounds weighed at Boggs, including a mind numbing 29+ pound 5-fish limit.
The Unknown Variables
So now we can see how the stats will need to trend if Waveland is to go the way of West Boggs. It might, or it might not. The difference will be in a few different variables.
Harvest: One of the big things that helped reduce the population of bass at Boggs was high harvest by anglers. At one point there was an average of over 13# of bass harvested per acre. To my knowledge they haven't surveyed the lake to determine what this figure is for Waveland. I see a lot of pan fishermen out at Waveland, but are they keeping any legal bass they catch? This one is an unknown at the moment. The more bass kept by anglers, the more likely Waveland will trend toward a Boggs-like condition.
Tx Pressure: At present, tourney pressure appears to be similar at both lakes. Waveland was actually probably getting more up until this year. Tourneys kill some bass, simple fact. Therefore, the more tournies, the more lost bass. Similarly, even recreational catch and release by all anglers (not just bass anglers) also kills some fish. To some degree this pressure will probably lead to fewer bass overall. Sometimes this factor has no effect at the population level, and sometimes it does. At this point we can't know for certain if it will affect Waveland.
A couple other interesting variables at play here are; 1) Boggs doesn't allow summer weekend tournies, 2) Both lakes are hit with "illegal" (non-permitted) tournies. In the case of Boggs, most bass are removed from the lake and taken to be weighed off-site and then not returned. At Waveland, they've tried to weigh on the water and release back into the lake.
Shad Selective: A neat study underway by the IDNR is trying to see if a policy of consistent shad selectives, whereby the lake is lowered slightly and a chemical toxic to shad is added, will make a long term difference at Waveland. Boggs has tried several different measures over the years, but not to the degree of what has been happening at Waveland.
Recruitment: One of the biggies is that though bass try and go through the spawning motions on these lakes, how many small bass that actually get spawned and survive (recruitment) to older stages and enter the population is an unknown. At Boggs, recruitment has been fairly poor as witnessed by the lack of small bass and small keepers caught. Some of this could be because of the competition between shad and bass young for the same or similar food items.
Another interesting difference here between the two lakes is that the IDNR has been stocking Waveland heavily with small bass both after the kill as well as after performing shad selectives. This could be acting to bolster recruitment at Waveland well above the natural level of the lake. Unfortunately, bass weren't stocked after this last selective, though muskie were. If no further stockings occur, will natural reproduction step in and replace the fish that get lost every year for whatever reason?
History: I've fished both these lakes now since well back in the 80's. Interestingly, Boggs has almost always trended toward being a big bass, low numbers kind of lake. The renovation changed that for a while, but the lake seems to have reverted back to the way it historically has been.
Similarly at Waveland, it's gone through a lot of changes over the years, but it's never been known as a big bass lake, even during times when it's been a low numbers lake. There might be core differences in location or watershed that account for this. If history is any guide, Waveland might just revert to a low numbers, decent fishery like it has been in the past. Regardless of what happens, it will be interesting to follow both lakes over the next several years.
The Rise (and Fall?) of Lake Waveland - Part II
We know where Lake Waveland currently stands now as to various metrics. The interesting part that I'm trying to figure out is whether the lake will start trending toward a cycle like West Boggs. In order to figure that out, we need to see some of the same metrics for Boggs. The bad news is that most of the same data pool for Boggs has been removed from the tourney site for a while. The good news, I have all the 2011 data plus a little extra to compare to.
The first big difference you'll notice at West Boggs vs. Waveland is that the average and median bags weights in tourneys at Boggs is really low. So while guys at Waveland are averaging about 12# per tourney, folks at Boggs are just reaching 4#. The median bag at Boggs is actually less than 1 pound. That is because on average, half the field blanks at Boggs in any given tourney. So Boggs is basically a low numbers lake. You'll see what this means in the next graph.
Generally speaking, low numbers of fish means more food to go around for what's left. As such, that usually translates into bigger fish. This graph demonstrates that nicely. The average West Boggs bass brought to the scales is nearly 4 pounds. Compare that to the current 2.5# fish at Waveland - big difference. The same trend applies in the big bass category. The trend at Boggs is still on the upswing, and now is consistently between 8-9 pounds.
Not much difference in the average number of boats in a tourney at either lake, with Boggs running around 27 boats and Waveland at 23. Again, Waveland probably would have been a bit higher if the 25 boat tourney limit had not been put in place by the park.
Another great graph showing the difference between a big numbers lake and a big fish lake (yes, sometimes you can have both). While 80% of all the boats at Waveland weigh a 5 fish limit at each event, less than 10% of all anglers ever have a limit at Boggs.
Here's another interesting stat for you. Over the course of this year, there were 20 bass over 5 pounds weighed at Boggs. That works out to about 16% of the total 127 bass weighed. Eleven of those were over 6#, 5 were over 7# and 4 were over 8. At Waveland, there were only 4 bass weighed over 5 pounds (1%) in this circuit, and only 1 of those was over 6. That out of a total of 494 weighed fish by a couple less boats per tourney on average. Again, a great numbers lake versus a great size lake.
Finally, while there were several sacks in the 17-18# range weighed at Waveland (18.01 best, twice), there were 5 sacks over 20 pounds weighed at Boggs, including a mind numbing 29+ pound 5-fish limit.
The Unknown Variables
So now we can see how the stats will need to trend if Waveland is to go the way of West Boggs. It might, or it might not. The difference will be in a few different variables.
Harvest: One of the big things that helped reduce the population of bass at Boggs was high harvest by anglers. At one point there was an average of over 13# of bass harvested per acre. To my knowledge they haven't surveyed the lake to determine what this figure is for Waveland. I see a lot of pan fishermen out at Waveland, but are they keeping any legal bass they catch? This one is an unknown at the moment. The more bass kept by anglers, the more likely Waveland will trend toward a Boggs-like condition.
Tx Pressure: At present, tourney pressure appears to be similar at both lakes. Waveland was actually probably getting more up until this year. Tourneys kill some bass, simple fact. Therefore, the more tournies, the more lost bass. Similarly, even recreational catch and release by all anglers (not just bass anglers) also kills some fish. To some degree this pressure will probably lead to fewer bass overall. Sometimes this factor has no effect at the population level, and sometimes it does. At this point we can't know for certain if it will affect Waveland.
A couple other interesting variables at play here are; 1) Boggs doesn't allow summer weekend tournies, 2) Both lakes are hit with "illegal" (non-permitted) tournies. In the case of Boggs, most bass are removed from the lake and taken to be weighed off-site and then not returned. At Waveland, they've tried to weigh on the water and release back into the lake.
Shad Selective: A neat study underway by the IDNR is trying to see if a policy of consistent shad selectives, whereby the lake is lowered slightly and a chemical toxic to shad is added, will make a long term difference at Waveland. Boggs has tried several different measures over the years, but not to the degree of what has been happening at Waveland.
Recruitment: One of the biggies is that though bass try and go through the spawning motions on these lakes, how many small bass that actually get spawned and survive (recruitment) to older stages and enter the population is an unknown. At Boggs, recruitment has been fairly poor as witnessed by the lack of small bass and small keepers caught. Some of this could be because of the competition between shad and bass young for the same or similar food items.
Another interesting difference here between the two lakes is that the IDNR has been stocking Waveland heavily with small bass both after the kill as well as after performing shad selectives. This could be acting to bolster recruitment at Waveland well above the natural level of the lake. Unfortunately, bass weren't stocked after this last selective, though muskie were. If no further stockings occur, will natural reproduction step in and replace the fish that get lost every year for whatever reason?
History: I've fished both these lakes now since well back in the 80's. Interestingly, Boggs has almost always trended toward being a big bass, low numbers kind of lake. The renovation changed that for a while, but the lake seems to have reverted back to the way it historically has been.
Similarly at Waveland, it's gone through a lot of changes over the years, but it's never been known as a big bass lake, even during times when it's been a low numbers lake. There might be core differences in location or watershed that account for this. If history is any guide, Waveland might just revert to a low numbers, decent fishery like it has been in the past. Regardless of what happens, it will be interesting to follow both lakes over the next several years.
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