Back on the subject of big late fall/winter fish, and the relationship to the theory of why larger fish, bass included, seem to spawn earliest. The most direct piece of work I've seen on this comes from Cargnellie and Gross: NOTES: Fish Energetics: Larger Individuals Emerge from Winter in Better Condition.
While their study couldn't discern between the two most likely scenarios of what might be happening, either one, or some combination of both, results in the same outcome.
- Bigger fish just store more "fat" energy (technically "lipids", which have 2X more energy per unit of weight as compared to either proteins or carbohydrates.
- Bigger fish, from a metabolic standpoint, simple deplete less energy stores than smaller fish do over the course of the winter - they live more efficiently from an energy use perspective.
There are a few other scenarios in play, most all of which the researchers were able to sufficiently feel they could discount due to their exacting methods, but which are interesting none the less due to their anecdotal relationship most bassers have probably experienced.
- "Larger individuals may feed during the winter" - While it has generally been believed/accepted that bass metabolism slows down to the point of minimal if not totally ceased feeding during the coldest water periods, we have all caught or know of plenty of bass taken through the ice or during partially iced conditions, somewhat discounting this theory. These fish are usually "keeper" sized or better individuals.
- "Larger individuals may begin feeding earlier after ice break than smaller individuals" - Again, those who start their bass season immediately after ice out will relate that some of the biggest fish are caught earliest in the year, and that in general, very few small bass are taken during this time.
- "Larger individuals face less predation risk. They may consume more prey items than do smaller individuals, and thus build up a greater energy reserve prior to the winter..." - It's the old axiom of eat or be eaten. If you're big, you have much less risk of being eaten, and hence can feed more freely or frequently without fear of negative repercussions, e.g., 'If you can't run with the big dogs, stay on the porch' (and possibly starve).
Season ending game changer?
If NOAA's 3-day precipitation map is correct, this could put a squelch to the open water bass fishing season for a large number of Indiana's waters. While I have come to witness the fact that there is no longer a time of year that you can't catch a bass in Indiana if you really try, the one thing that seems to shut down the season for a good spell more than anything is a late season downpour. The interesting part is that is has nothing to do with water temperatures, or perhaps I should clarify that they are a secondary factor. The main factor is the influx of muddy water combined with very cold water.
Cold water, in and of itself, plays no part in the ability to catch bass here in Indiana. I've caught them fishing lakes that are 3/4-iced over, as well as by targeting them through the ice, and frequently on fairly active style baits. I remember one trip a few years back where we were throwing our silver buddy's onto the ice shelf and then pulling them off and letting them drop straight down near some brush we knew of - and catching good numbers of bass doing it.
The killer that really slows everything down, and sometimes will just kill certain lakes, is the muddy water. There are several factors that come into play here that probably all have an effect. For one, the bass have been gorging all fall and by now are in a position where they could go quite a while without having to feed again. Part of this is assisted by their slowed metabolism due to the really cold water temps.
Another factor is the lack of really sunny, warm days that are left. In spring and summer, you can darn near fish a corn field and still catch bass by targeting shallow fish that move into inches of water, partially to gain warmth and partially to be able to see to feed better. These such days are definitely in the minority right now. It also doesn't help that the general transition of fish is toward more deeper, stable (warmer) waters instead of shallower haunts.
The really big factor in my eyes, though, is the fresh mud that gets put into the water column. This time of year you have a few things working against you when it comes to muddy water. What happens is that instead of getting a chance to clear quickly like will happen at other times of the year, the soil particles tend to stay suspended for what seems like an inordinate amount of time now. With many lakes low and shorelines exposed, a lot of what will get washed into a watershed following a heavy rain are the exposed clays.
Clay particles are typically the smallest classified soil particles, followed by silts and then sands. Various combinations of these three types of soils make up all the traditionally classified "dirt". Individual clay particles are very small, practically microscopic, and they also have very low mass. This makes for large specific surfaces, which then makes them prone to being suspended by water molecules. Combined with the colder and now more dense waters of our rivers and reservoirs, clays can stay in suspension for a very long time.
Their flat shape also plays into this, as does the tendency to have windy weather and lake drawdowns this time of year. Both these factors create turbulence or velocity of waters that enable the clay particles to stay in suspension just that much longer. There is also speculation that the extremely small sized clay particles, when dense enough, actually work to make it harder for a bass to "breathe" by covering and blocking the minute structures in gills that fish use to absorb oxygen from the water. Larger fish are usually immune to this, but very small fish, especially newly hatched fry and the like have been documented in the research to expire from this exact condition. There are also large differences among species of fish, with bluegills and largemouth bass faring better than, say, smallmouth bass.
So we'll just have to wait and see what happens over the next couple days, but I'm certainly feeling a lot less optimistic about fishing chances now compared to just a week ago.
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